Guns Won't Cure Our Fears
As polarization deepens, Americans across ideologies seek comfort in arms.
It was the Christmas after Obama's historic victory in 2008. I was nine years old. My Virginian father, a staunch Evangelical, bought his first gun. And his second. And third.
Obama is going to take away our freedom. We have to be able to protect our house. This is the end of America. These memories I have of my father were full of fear. Fears of change, lost status, the other – fears that mean we need guns to keeps us safe.
Now an adult, and far from the rhetoric of my youth, I'm studying this escalation of arms with Federal Firearm Check data. It's clear my father's response to Obama's election was widespread in our state. In fact, the reactionary fear he exemplified spurred a surge in gun sales that continues to this day.
The 2008 election began a trend of increasing gun sales.
Gun sales peaked nationally in 2008, correlated with states that voted against Obama.
National
53% of votes for Obama
Texas
44% of votes for Obama
New York
63% of votes for Obama
Over the course of Obama's eight-year presidency, gun ownership in the U.S. more than doubled.
Americans buy guns because they are afraid of change.
A nationwide survey of Americans indicates that cultural anxiety drives gun ownership.
The study argues spikes in gun purchases often come from "broader economic, cultural, and racial anxieties." These can be spurred by movements for social change, like Black Lives Matter.
Another study indicates racial resentment and childhood socialization are particularly important contributors to gun ownership.
Photo by Nicole Baster on Unsplash
Photo by Nicole Baster on Unsplash
Are mass shootings to blame? A common theory proves inconclusive.
Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash
Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash
Gun sales sometimes rise after mass shootings. But that's not the whole story.
Though the 2015 San Bernadino shooting was reported to have caused a 62% increase in gun sales, other notable shootings don't correlate in the same way.
For example, the 2017 Las Vegas shooting did not see an unseasonal spike in gun sales, despite being the deadliest mass shooting in American history. The connection just isn't clear for the majority of shootings from the last decade.
Fear is the dominant force driving purchases, but it's more than fear in response to violence. We have to consider the role of underlying cultural anxieties.
Gun purchases and polarization are on upward trends, reaching new heights in 2020.
2020 marked a highwater mark. In the historic surge of gun purchases, nearly 40% were from first-time buyers. That same year, social trust plummeted. The majority of Americans believed the country was "in the midst of a cold civil war."
In a year marked by "upheaval and pain," it's worth taking a look at the specific events that might have spurred cultural anxiety and influenced Americans' choice to arm themselves.
2020 escalated cultural anxiety and distrust – and gun sales.
were sold in 2020 alone. A national record.
Let's look at what happened that year.
Photo by Mike Walter on Unsplash
Photo by Mike Walter on Unsplash
New York– March 1, 2020
On March 1, the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in New York, followed by shutdowns and a global pandemic announcement on March 15.
The pandemic saw an escalation in media rhetoric, a "diffusion of distrust." It was devastating for both public mental health and overall trust in civic society.
Consistent with expectations, gun sales spiked and remained elevated for the rest of the pandemic. But why did they peak again in June?
Photo by Mike Walter on Unsplash
Photo by Mike Walter on Unsplash
Minnesota – May 25, 2020
The murder of George Floyd by a police officer on May 25 sparked protests and unrest in Minneapolis, Minnesota. In solidarity, Black Lives Matter protests spread across the country.
During this time, Minnesota was part of a rise in gun purchases across Republican and Democratic states that carried through the end of 2020.
Though almost all of the protests were peaceful, on June 2, Fox News published an article stoking fear of "riots heading to suburbia." The report foreboded, "people will die."
In predominantly white small cities, unfounded anxieties over "antifa" came to a head. People organized in counterprotest.
Photo by Harold Mendoza on Unsplash
Photo by Harold Mendoza on Unsplash
DC – January 6, 2021
On January 6, protestors armed with firearms stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to change the results of the 2020 election. This followed a year of record gun sales and the increased mobilization of armed right-wing militias.
According to Forbes, the month of the insurrection saw gun purchases at levels never seen before. While NICS data does not support this, gun sales did increase after the attack.
We are now in an era where more guns are purchased every month than they ever were pre-2008. But the sentiment remains the same as back then. It's the same fear as when my dad bought his first gun. And his second. And third.
Created using Flourish
Created using Flourish
These are escalating trends.
If we want to address the arming of Americans, we must also address escalating fear and distrust.
We need trust. Trust in civic society. Trust in social institutions. Trust within and between our communities
But trust has to be earned.
Systems of inequality and discrimination degrade trust. How can we begin to dismantle these systems? How can we collaborate for better ones?
You can contribute to initiatives restoring trust.
The Dataset
The data used in this project originate from the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The data provided by the FBI were parsed by Jermey Singer-Vine at BuzzFeedNews, who maintains a the data on a live Github repository.
The dataset contains monthly background checks by state for handguns, long guns, and other firearms for November 1999 to the current month.
I used the method suggested by Jurgen Brauer in the Small Arms Survey and used by the New York Times to calculate estimated sales from these background check data.
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