Evolving Trends in the NBA over the Past Decade
Significant Improvement in Scoring
In the past decade, NBA teams have shown significant improvement in scoring. The 2022–23 season marked a historic milestone with an unprecedented average points per game (PPG) of 114.2, the highest in NBA history.
A decade earlier, the average was just below 100, underscoring the remarkable shift in offensive performance.
No matter whether the team is better at offense or defense, they are all improving their scoring abilities.
More Three-Point Attempts
Since the 2012–2013 season, there have been significant increases in both field goal attempts and 3-point shot attempts. On average, in the last season, 3-point attempts per game was 34.2, a very dramatic increase of 71% compared to a decade ago.
Interestingly, there's a surprising trend where 2-point attempts (2PA) are on the decline, despite the overall increase in both field goal attempts (FGA) and 3-point shots (3PA).
Even Power Forwards are attempting more 3-pointers!
For example, in the 2016–17 season, Houston pioneered this trend by attempting an unprecedented 40.0 3-point shots per game, a feat that escalated to an NBA-high of 45.3 in the 2019–20 season.
More Rounds of Offensive
The game becomes much faster!
In the 2011-2012 season, the averaged possessions per game (Pace) was only 91.3, but in the current season, it has surged to 99.3, reflecting an 8.7% increase.
Historically, offensive success, particularly in the postseason, leaned towards a slower, isolation-centric style involving just one or two best players —a less captivating viewing experience and led to a relatively low pace.
However, in recent years, the focus has shifted to quickly spreading offensive players across the half-court, capitalizing on shooters, and prioritizing the extra pass, and numerous teams have adopted this approach, which leads to more scoring opportunities. For example, Golden State gained acclaim for its high-energy, swift-shooting, and long-range offense, which helped them win championships many times.
More Collaborative and All-Round
NBA teams have increasingly prioritized ball movement and teamwork, cultivating more collaborative offensive approaches. The emphasis mainly focuses on creating open-shot opportunities for teammates, leading to a rise in the count of assists.
The idea of positionless basketball is gaining popularity, allowing players from different positions to contribute to playmaking. It's not uncommon to see point forwards and centers with playmaking skills, resulting in a more shared responsibility for creating scoring opportunities.
When comparing modern and traditional centers, the former exhibits greater versatility, especially notable improvements in assists and three-pointers, despite a decrease in defensive capabilities. The 2022-2023 season MVP, Nikola Jokic, boasts an assist prowess that surpasses many top point guards!
Comparing ability values between modern centers and traditional centers
Comparing ability values between modern centers and traditional centers
Behind the Screen
More data-driven
NBA teams are embracing a data-centric approach, enhancing the efficacy of their offensive strategies.
In recent years, there has been a notable shift as these teams incorporate quantitative analyses into their game plans. The recruitment of statisticians, economists, and data scientists has become more prevalent as teams aim to optimize their performance through diverse data analytics methods.
New rules benefit offensive players
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver expressed concern that the physical nature of the game was impeding the performance of top-skill players, leading to decreased offensive output and waning fan interest.
In response to these issues, Silver implemented several rule changes aimed at improving the offensive aspect of the game. Despite the commissioner's well-intentioned efforts, he acknowledges that some players have found ways to legally exploit opponents due to these changes.
What we may learn from this trend:
(Call to action)
Try to be a more all-round player
Develop the 3-point skill
Play more aggressively
More collaborations with teammates
Conclusion
The game of basketball is always evolving.
There's been a noticeable trend towards a more spaced-out style of play, highlighting the importance of outside shooting, teamwork, and speed. This transformation is further influenced by the increasing presence of international players in the NBA. Fans can anticipate a faster and more strategically nuanced game in the league over the next several decades.
Given the substantial changes in basketball over the past decade, it wouldn't be surprising if one season from this era breaks the all-time scoring average.
Thank you!
Data Sources:
SPORTSKEEDA. "What is the average point per game (PPG) in the NBA by year? Looking at the last decade and the evolution of scoring" by Asmir Pekmic.
MEDIUM. "Visualizing the NBA’s Three-Point Revolution - How Threes Have Impacted the Game Since 2000" by Jordan Pagkalinawan.
REVELIOLABS. "Which NBA Team Is The Most Data-Driven? - Some teams are going the Moneyball route more than others" by Ben Zweig.
Built with Shorthand